The ‘guts’ of the Ageing Population Opportunity
In short – from the mid 1940’s more people were born, fewer died and more are living to be older. For the first time in history, there will be more older than younger people and the balance of those over 65 will be significantly increased. The oldest old population group – those over 85, will grow the most. So, unless we have world war, natural disasters, plague or divine intervention, we have a new paradigm ahead of us. We can choose to see this as a problem or as an opportunity.
Facts and statistics
- There is a ‘bulge’ of retirees over the next 20-30 years
- The dependency ration today is 0.53. In 2051 it will be 0.71
- By 2050 1 in 4 people will be over 65. Today it is 1 in 8.
- The problem is Global in developed countries. Europe and Japan seem to be most affected.
- The oldest old – over 85 – will be the largest growth group
- Physical and mental incapacity over 65 is a major concern
- Dementia currently occurs at a rate of 1 in 1000 up to age 65 then climbs to 1 in 5 over 80. This does not include those with brain damage (strokes, tumours, damage from falls)
- There will be fewer working-aged employees to fill jobs
- Many over 60’s want to work but can’t get appropriate work
- All family members will be affected
- Age discrimination and mandatory retirement will be affect employers
- According to the EEO trust*fact sheet, only about 50% of employers are taking this situation seriously
General
The ‘ageing population’ refers to the increase in older people in the mix of society over the next 30 years. Often this is confused with the wave of Baby Boomers that are just reaching retirement. Baby Boomers is a term referring to the generation of post war babies born between 1945 and 1964 who are said to share some similar charactaristics. However, research shows that they are far from a homogeneous group.* The NZ department of Statistics claims that the ageing population issue also includes those born up to the 70’s.*
Increase in numbers
The ‘bulge’ of this period occurred mainly because of an increase in births and longevity:
- Post war renewal – more babies were born
- Fewer deaths at birth due to new medical discoveries
- Fewer deaths in adulthood due to the above
- More people living to be older because of medical discoveries
Decrease in births from the 1970’s
The wide use of the contraceptive pill in the l970’s led to women controlling childbirth and the next few generations. In wealthy countries, women pursued careers and lifestyle choosing to have fewer children. This imbalance of the generations will lead to a significant shift in the dependency ratio in most first world countries over the next 20 years. The first Baby Boomers retire this year – it has already started!
This situation may not continue into the future – a new increased birth rate seems to have begun in the past decade – but it won’t impact in the next few decades.
What is the dependency ratio?
This figure is calculated on the basis of those earning to those being supported. Generally, the number of children under working age plus the number of retired constitutes the supported group. Everyone in between is assumed to be working to support them.
For example, if 80% are earning and 20% are being supported, then society can support the 20% easily. On the other hand, if there are 20% supporting the 80% there will be serious difficulties. Of course, this assumes a lot – that all the people in the middle years are all working – that retired people are non earning and that we don’t have child labour! Any one of these factors can shift the dependency reality if not the age related ratio.
Sources of information:*
EEO Trust – Great knowledge and advisory base. See especially:
Workplace Age and Gender July 2009
Ageing workforce fact sheet
Power point presentation ‘Effectively managing an ageing workforce’
NZ Department of statistics
‘Demographic aspects of NZ’s ageing population’ 2006
NZ Department of Labour
‘Workforce 2020’
Neilson Report for the Hope Foundation – research on ageing
‘New insights into the experienced generation’ July 2009
NZ Institute for Research on Ageing
‘Maximising the potential of older workers’ 2007
Videos:
Gregory Petsko: ‘The coming neurological epidemic’
Article on www.janisgrummitt.com:
‘All wise people are old but not all old people are wise’ (blog)
‘Opportunities of the Ageing population’ (blog)
‘What is a wise society and why do we need it?’ (page)
One of the difficulties is the lack of general awareness around the issue. We need to be having conversations and developing positive possibilities. Riots in Europe will continue if people don’t understand the situation. Lack of knowledge and understanding creates chaos. The media, marketing and politicians are already seeing this as an opportunity but are focusing on their own agendas and are publicising the negative consequences. Ordinary people need to start having conversations and identifying things that they can do that are positive – helping themselves, their families and in turn, the whole of Society.
Discussion
Potential Consequences
There is very little awareness amongst the public in NZ. There have been many warnings over the past 10 years from various concerned departments and agencies. Politically it has not risen to the top of most agendas. Many countries are now facing riots and problems as the public discover that their pensions (which they assumed would be waiting) may not be paid as soon as they expected, as much as they expected or even paid at all.
Generational split and civil unrest
The Global financial crisis has exacerbated this problem and the issue of jobs has now become a major issue in countries where there are simply not enough work for those who need to stay working longer and those starting out in the workforce. Greece has recently been in the news as has Italy. A split between older and younger generations could happen.
Extra pressure on health systems
An inevitable increase (some call it the coming tsunami) of dementia will hit health services as more and more people live to be older and they are kept alive. It is a simple fact that we all deteriorate physically as we age. Some of us also deteriorate mentally. Cases of dementia rise exponentially after the age of 80 – more and more of us are living that long.
Pressure on managing work and family
Working while having responsibility for parents and older relatives will become as difficult as child rearing has been. Many younger generations will be overwhelmed by both – children or grand children and parents.
The economics of paying pensions
Most countries are struggling to see how they can fulfil a promise to pay made many years ago. In some countries, politicians have appropriated (stolen) money set aside for this purpose to use on more imminent political needs. Many people over 60 simply are resigned to get a reduced pension paid later. There is a large group of over 60’s who would like to work.
Cultural barriers
Despite the fact that most people over 60 say they would like to work – there are very few ‘jobs’ for them. A culture of ageism and lack of technical know-how at work (computer and device use) combine to disadvantage them. In addition, most also want to change pace and have a different type of work which uses their wisdom of experience rather than their raw energy and full dedication. Older people are getting stuck between a rock and a hard place.
In addition to the ‘myths’ of the older worker, younger people are afraid that they will bear the burdon of earning to support older people and eventually supporting them literally as they become infirm.
Voting and power
The over 65s may be at a difficult cross roads at work, but there are a disproportionate number of us in the population who can vote. Many say that unless a law is passed to prevent voting over a certain age, there will be far more power in the ‘oldies’ vote. This may not be a good thing if this power is simply used for selfish gain. Alienating younger voters would be a sad outcome for our culture as a whole.
Rethinking work
The existing system may be moribund. It simply cannot be ‘tweeked’ to adapt to this issue. We must talk together about another way forwards.
Personal responsibility
Research and knowledge about health and ageing is growing along with survival rates. We know how to offset dementia; we know how to build a brain that gets wiser; however, the existing culture has been focused on external responsibility ‘the government will provide’, ‘I have a right to my pension’, ‘the culture is to blame for the lack of jobs’, business needs to step up and create more jobs for over 60s’….and so on.
In fact, I believe it is only by us taking personal responsibility for ourselves that we can move forwards. Government and business can provide fair and effective frameworks for that but we must preserve our health and develop our brains to be as fit and effective as we can to serve the community. Very few people know much at all about their brain or care much (other than the odd trip to the gym) about their bodies. We can do better and we can help our parents and employees to do better.
My personal belief is that we should be able to create far wiser workplaces and communities with the knowledge, experience and compassion of elders amongst us. We just need to use our potential well and all take responsibility for contributing. Let’s not miss this opportunity.
Possible solutions:
Most people would willingly take responsibility but simply don’t know how they can change. It all seems too difficult for one person. We need to get people together to share support and celebrate achievement. Individuals can make a difference if they each would just affect their own future. We need to show people how to do that.
- Challenge myths – involve everyone in the conversation. Raise awareness of role models
- Change work. Introduce mentoring and other roles in leadership that recognise wisdom. Give them mana
- Encourage everyone to exercise and develop their bodies and brains regularly
- Give focus to the older and wiser employees allow others to find alternate fields of contribution in the community
- Help employees to confidently transition one work phase of their lives to the next. Tribal communities do this well – we don’t
- Engage people in having responsibility for their future; translate research into can do-habits for personal development and deferring dementia
- Raise awareness – talk to everyone about the potential.
- Help people to aspire to being wise and prevent wisdom from being confused with intellect